Expanded representations of a Bayesian network for assessing a single ‘hit’ in a database of reduced size. Bayesian network (with nodes shown in expanded form) for evaluating a correspondence between the profile of a suspect and that of a crime stain, as defined earlier in Figure 2. Fixed node states are shown in bold. The network (i) represents an initial situation in which the size of the population is N=3, and the corresponding characteristic occurs with probability γ=0.01. (ii) The state of the Bayesian network after introducing information about the non-matching individual 2 (that is, X2). (iii) The state of the Bayesian network after adding the information that the suspect’s profile corresponds to that of the crime stain (that is, M1). Probabilities are shown in percentages.