Figure 3

Expanded representations of a Bayesian network for assessing a single database ‘hit’. Bayesian network (with nodes shown in expanded form) for evaluating a correspondence between the profile of a suspect and that of a crime stain, as defined in Figure 2. Fixed node states are shown in bold. The network (i) shows an evaluation of the information that the suspect’s profile is found to correspond (M₁=true) when N=100 and γ=0.01. The posterior probability that the suspect is the source of the crime stain is shown by the state H₁in the node H. The network (ii) shows a situation in which the additional information about the second (non-matching) individual on the database is known. Probabilities are shown in percentages.